With so many varying viewpoints and narratives swirling about the Orange County housing market, taking a step back to assess current real estate trends can provide much-needed clarity. As we enter the final stretch of the 2024 housing market, a few pivotal trends are emerging that offer valuable insights for Orange County sellers, buyers, and investors alike. Here’s a look at the Top 3 Real Estate Trends identified by my colleague and seasoned housing economist, Steven Thomas, shedding light on what to expect in the Orange County market as the year concludes.

As the inventory continues to rise, more sellers are reducing their asking prices or pulling their homes off the market altogether, indicative that far too many homes are overpriced.

Housing has been slowing through both the Spring and Summer Markets, yet the slowdown has picked up its pace since transitioning to the Autumn Market.

Mortgage rates have plunged from 7.5% in April to 6.34% today, opening up a window of opportunity for buyers who should not wait.

Housing is much different this year compared to last year, with more FOR-SALE signs, more OPEN HOUSE directional arrows, and longer market times.

Longer market times and more price reductions are very strong indicators that sellers will net less upon closing.

While the inventory may still be limited and not even close to returning to pre-pandemic levels, there are finally more homes coming on the market. There are 18% more sellers than last year.

It is best to step back from all the narratives, opinions, and noise whirling around the housing market and focus on the trends.

The Orange County inventory has been on the rise and is starting to pick up steam, unlike last year when it continuously dropped through mid-April.

After bouncing along a record-low number of homeowners willing to sell in the high mortgage rate ienvironment for over a year, there were more new sellers in January compared to 2023, the first “Green Shoot” sins rate soared higher in 2022.

When will housing heat up in 2024? It depends on when the economy cools. When that occurs, rates will drop, and the housing market will heat up. No matter what, there will be more homeowners opting to sell their homes, pending sales will increase and surpass 2023 levels, and there will be more closed sales. How hot the housing market gets in 2024 depends upon when the overall economy downshifts.

For sellers who do not price their home carefully and must reduce their price down the road, they will likely net less upon closing.

As rates surge higher and affordability diminishes even more, smaller changes in the market times shift the market in favor of the buyer.

As rates have edged higher and higher this year, the housing market has been slowing down from it insane pace, and now homes are taking a little longer to sell.

Despite the high mortgage rate environment eroding home affordability, home values in Orange County have been on the rise after bottoming in December.

Housing’s Summer Market has arrived, and with it comes an increase in inventory, a slight decrease in demand, and a rise in the market time.

From YouTube to TikTok to the Backyard Barbecue, there are plenty of narratives regarding pending doom for housing that the underlying data does not support.

With the number of available homes to purchase at extremely low levels, there simply are too many buyers competing against each other despite high mortgage rates.

A Seller’s Market …when the Expected Market Time drops below 40 days, the housing market leans heavily in favor of sellers.

Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silver Bank in March, mortgage rates were just above 7%. Since then, rates have fallen…

Low Supply and Multiple Bids

Market Times have dropped like a rock since the start of the year, squeezed by not enough sellers.