Orange County Housing: What 2026 Is Quietly Setting Up

As we step into 2026, the Orange County housing market is no longer defined by shock or stagnation—it’s defined by choice. After several years of historically low inventory, muted demand, and homeowners holding tight to low-rate mortgages, the market is beginning to rebalance.

Inventory in 2025 climbed to its highest level since 2019, buyer demand remained steady (though rate-sensitive), and seller competition quietly returned. Luxury properties continued to outperform, while overall market times stretched, rewarding strategic pricing and thoughtful preparation.

Looking ahead, the story of 2026 hinges on one key factor: mortgage rates. Depending on how the economy, labor market, and inflation evolve, we could see anything from a modestly improving market to a more competitive spring—or a slower, negotiation-heavy year. The data outlines three clear scenarios, each with very different implications for buyers, sellers, and investors.

This isn’t a market for guessing. It’s a market for clarity.

If you’d like the full Orange County Housing Report: 2026 Forecast, authored by economist Steven Thomas, which includes detailed data, charts, and multiple market scenarios, reach out directly. I’m happy to share the full report and walk through what it means specifically for your goals and timeline.

Thoughtful strategy starts with real insight.