The Winter Market has officially arrived. After an exceptionally slow holiday season, buyer demand is about to surge—and Orange County housing conditions are shifting fast.

If the early 2026 housing market were an Olympic event, we'd be watching the starting blocks right now. Just as LA28 ticket registrations broke records with over 1.5 million sign-ups in the first 24 hours, the Orange County housing market is seeing its own kind of launch as buyers emerge from the holiday pause.

The market is transitioning from the Holiday Market—the slowest time of year—into the Winter Market, which runs from mid-January through mid-March. This shift brings one reliable pattern: demand climbs faster than inventory, and the market accelerates noticeably.

Current Orange County Snapshot:

• Active Listings: 3,062
• Pending Sales: 914
• Days on Market: 101
• Mortgage Rate: 6.07%

The Rate Environment Has Shifted

Here's the headline worth watching: today's mortgage rate of 6.07% is a full percentage point lower than this time last year, when rates were stuck above 7%. Rates have hovered between 6% and 6.5% since early September 2025—the longest stretch at these levels since the Federal Reserve began hiking rates in 2022.

That one-point drop translates to real affordability improvement. As buyers reemerge from holiday hibernation, this rate environment may drive more urgency than we saw in 2025.

What History Tells Us About the Winter Market: Every year, regardless of economic conditions, buyer demand surges from mid-January through mid-March. Last year, demand grew 69% during this period (from 988 to 1,665 pending sales). In 2024, it jumped 52%. The three-year pre-COVID average was 47%. Meanwhile, inventory grows at a slower pace—typically 10-24%—because most sellers wait until spring to list.

Inventory Update: Rising, But Still Constrained

The active listing inventory increased by 359 homes over the past two weeks—a 13% jump—bringing the total to 3,062, the highest mid-January level since 2020. Much of this rise came from relisted homes that went off-market during the holidays.

Still, inventory remains well below historical norms. The three-year average before COVID was 4,665 homes at this time of year—73% higher than today. Homeowners continue to hold onto their low-rate mortgages, though this "lock-in effect" has been gradually easing since 2023.

Through December 2025, 28,949 homes were placed on the market in Orange County—26% fewer than the pre-COVID average. However, that's 2,089 more than 2024 and 5,808 more than 2023. The trend is slowly improving.

Demand: Poised to Surge

Current demand stands at 914 pending sales—the lowest mid-January reading since tracking began in 2004. But this floor won't last long. Historically, demand rockets upward from here through mid-March, outpacing inventory growth and driving faster market times.

Last year at this time, demand was 988 (8% higher than today). The pre-COVID average was 1,634—79% higher. The gap highlights both the current market's constraints and its upside potential as buyers return.

Market Time: Where Things Stand

The Expected Market Time—the number of days it would take to sell all Orange County listings at the current pace—jumped from 85 to 101 days, the highest mid-January level since 2019.

For context: last year it was 84 days; the three-year pre-COVID average was 88 days. This metric will likely improve over the coming weeks as demand accelerates faster than inventory.

Key Takeaways

→ Inventory stands at 3,062 homes—10% higher than last year, but roughly 50% below pre-COVID norms.

→ Demand is at 914 pending sales, down 8% from last year, but poised to surge through mid-March.

→ Market Time is 101 days—expect this to compress as buyer activity increases.

→ Mortgage rates at 6.07% significantly lower than last January—a meaningful affordability boost.

→ Distressed sales remain negligible: just 6 properties (0.2% of listings), with 99.8% of closed sales involving sellers with equity.

Luxury Market: A Longer Runway

Luxury homes (priced above $2.5 million) face a different reality. The Expected Market Time for this segment increased to 200 days—meaning at the current pace, a luxury seller might not go pending until August 2026.

• Homes priced $2.5M–$4M: 145 days
• Homes priced $4M–$6M: 249 days
• Homes priced above $6M: 365 days
  
  

Luxury demand sits at 105 pending sales—its lowest level since January 2025—though it's still up 8% year-over-year.

What This Means for You

The Winter Market is a window of opportunity—but it requires clarity and strategy.

For buyers: Now is the time to get prepared. With rates more favorable than they've been in years and demand about to spike, hesitation may cost you leverage. Expect competition to intensify through March.

For sellers: Listing before the spring rush can help you capture early-season buyers without competing against the wave of new inventory coming in March and April. Pricing strategically is critical—overpriced homes will sit as the market accelerates around them.

Want the Full Report?

If you'd like the complete Orange County Housing Report with detailed charts, data, and market scenarios, reach out directly. I'm happy to share it and walk through what it means for your specific goals.

Thoughtful strategy starts with real insight.

January 19, 2026 Data source: Reports On Housing, Steven Thomas, Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences, Mortgage News Daily, CRMLS